After almost a year off the platform, Donald Trump returned to X this week and asked his 89 million followers: “Are you better off now than you were when I was president?”
It was a clear echo of the famous quote from Ronald Reagan during his victorious 1980 presidential campaign, when he asked: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
This messaging isn’t surprising. It seems like an obvious strategy for Trump to focus on the economy.
That’s because polls consistently suggest it’s the issue American voters care about the most. One such poll conducted by The Economist and YouGov in recent days listed “inflation/prices” and “jobs and the economy” among voters’ top concerns.
Perhaps more importantly, polls also indicate voters are deeply unhappy with the current state of affairs.
That seems like a perfect situation for any presidential challenger.
But in an election that’s been transformed by Kamala Harris taking over from Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, Trump seems to be struggling to land his simple message on the economy.
It is less than a month since he was on stage at the Republican National Convention looking unbeatable, having survived an assassination attempt and riding high in the opinion polls.
Now, he has lost that lead and seems to have lost his way. Meanwhile, in the opposition corner, Ms Harris is riding a wave of excitement and enthusiasm that he is finding difficult to counter.
The easiest way to burst her bubble would be to remind voters how unhappy they are about high prices and blame her for the inflation that has pushed up the cost of living during the time she has been beside President Biden in the White House.
One of the reasons Trump is failing to land that message is the Harris campaign’s strategy of putting proposals to try to lower the cost of living at the heart of her pitch.
In a speech in North Carolina on Friday, Ms Harris promised to expand child tax credits, help people to purchase their first homes, and to encourage the building of more affordable housing.
She also said she hoped to tackle the persistently high price of food and groceries by banning “price gouging” or excessive corporate profiteering.
“By any measure, our economy is the strongest in the world,” she said. “Many Americans don’t yet feel that progress in their daily lives.”
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris ought to be able to boast about some very good economic indicators. There is strong growth, record levels of job creation, and this week the inflation rate fell below 3% for the first time during Mr Biden’s presidency.
But because prices are still high, voters don’t feel any better off. Voters don’t care about the rate of inflation – they care about the level of prices.
“A central banker wants inflation to get back to target. A shopper wants his or her old price back,” Jared Bernstein, the chair of President Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in a July speech.
When it comes to the economy, “the vibes are off”.
“Vibes matter,” Mr Bernstein said.
Leave a Reply